Skip to main content

Are We Headed For Another Recession? Team Thayer #realEstate #housing #market #investor #news #oregon

Rates drop BH Team Thayer Real Estate OregonWhile many analysts expected economic growth to be weak in the first quarter, no one expected it to be as weak as it actually was.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) “advance” estimate for the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in Q1 reported a rate of 0.5 percent for the quarter. And while Q1 has had its problems in recent years—the GDP grew at only 0.7 percent for the first quarter of 2015, then shot up to 3.9 percent for Q2—none were expecting it to be that low.
GDP growth was 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015.
According to the BEA, the slow Q1 GDP growth reflected a larger decrease in nonresidential fixed investment, a deceleration in personal consumption expenditures (PCEs), a downturn in federal government spending, an upturn in reports, and larger decreases in primary inventory investment. These factors were partially offset by an upturn in local government spending and an acceleration in residential fixed investment, according to the BEA.
“Our forecast was about 0.7 growth and it came in at 0.5,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “People's expectations had adjusted toward that. The good news in there was that housing actually increased its contribution, and that's consistent with our forecast. The thing I think people continue to be disappointed with is the consumption numbers and the business fixed investment numbers were quite weak. That's actually not surprising, given that corporate profits have fallen over the last several months, and companies typically don't invest when profits are falling.”
Duncan added that is a risk component of the economic picture going forward, there is a “pretty high correlation between a decline in profits and a recession, even though most people don't have that in their forecast at the moment.”
With the GDP growth that low, is a recession in the cards for the near term? Capital Economics said the likelihood is low.
“Following on from the 1.4 percent gain in the final quarter of last year, (growth of less than 1 percent) suggests the U.S. economy lost more momentum and could be headed for a full-blown downturn,” Capital Economics said in a recent report. “The risk of a recession this year is still relatively low, however, particularly as the improvement in the activity surveys points to a rebound in GDP growth soon.”
GDP growth Team Thayer Real Estate Oregon

Team Thayer www.teamthayer.com
Location: Eugene, OR 97401, USA

Popular posts from this blog

Grass Seed Video

Read more

Bankruptcy Filings Dip Even Lower! Team Thayer #realestate #housing #market #investor #News #oregon

Bankruptcy Filings Dip Lower Nationwide bankruptcy filings were 5 percent lower in October 2016 compared with a year earlier, falling even lower than last month’s reported decrease, according to October 2016 AACER bankruptcy data reported by Epiq Systems. Bankruptcy filings totaled 63,042 in October, which was an increase from September’s total of 64,614, and was approximately 2.4 percent higher than October 2015’s total of 63,042 (an increase of 1,572).  Year-to-date, there have been 656,125 bankruptcy filings nationwide for the past nine months of 2016 (about 65,613 per month), down from 2015’s year-to-date total through the end of October of 700,014 (about 70,001 per month). The average number of filings per day in October 2016 was 3,152 over 20 days, which is an increase from September’s daily average of 3,077 over 21 days. The extra filing day in September compared to October accounts for the slight increase in the number of filings in September; had October feature...
Read more

When Will Bank Foreclosurews ‘Normalize’? Team Thayer #realestate #investor #housing #market #news #oregon

With much of the talk surrounding the housing market centered on “normalization” or returning to its pre-crisis state, one metric which the market is watching is the distressed sales share—the share of REO and short sales that comprise total residential home sales. For February 2016, the distressed sales share declined by 2.9 percentage points over-the-year (and 0.4 percentage points over-the month) down to 11 percent, according to  data released by CoreLogic  on Thursday. At their peak in January 2009, distressed sales accounted for nearly one-third of all residential home sales (32.4 percent) but has been declining steadily since then. By comparison, the pre-crisis share of distressed sales was typically around 2 percent; CoreLogic estimates that if the current rate of year-over-year decline continues, the distressed sales share will reach the “normal” pre-crisis level in slightly more than two years. “Prior to the housing crash, the distressed share of total...
Read more