case schillerTorsten Sløk, Deutsche Bank


After the Great Recession, many millennials were forced back into their parents' houses, with nearly 15% of adults aged 25-34 living at home in 2014, according to the Census Bureau. Sløk observes that this trend may be starting to turn around: Rates of household formation have been surging recently, likely fueled by those millennials moving out. This could lead to a huge jump in housing demand should this surge continue:
household formationTorsten Sløk, Deutsche Bank

That same millennial cohort has seen a big recovery in employment, which could lead to further household formation and housing demand:
millennial employmentTorsten Sløk, Deutsche Bank

Meanwhile, the aftereffects of the burst of the mid-2000s housing bubble are beginning to subside. The share of distressed sales among all home sales is way down:
distressed home salesTorsten Sløk, Deutsche Bank

Foreclosure rates are back near pre-crisis levels:
foreclosure ratesTorsten Sløk, Deutsche Bank

The US may even be moving closer to a housing shortage. The number of homes for sale is lower than it's been in over a decade:
number of homesTorsten Sløk, Deutsche Bank

Rental vacancy rates are lower than their pre-bubble average, indicating a shortage of rental units as well:
rental vacanciesTorsten Sløk, Deutsche Bank

With the rental unit shortage implied above, homeownership might become a more attractive option for recently formed households. Renters have dominated new household formation over the last several years, and many of those renters may want to buy their own homes in the future:
rental householdsTorsten Sløk, Deutsche Bank

With the economic situation improving for young adults in their prime household formation and home buying years, foreclosure and distressed sales rates returning to some semblance of normalcy, and increasing pressure in the rental market, Monday's big jump in pending home sales might be just the start of a much stronger housing market.