Skip to main content

Housing Outlook 2016: Higher Home Sales and Prices Team Thayer Real Estate #News #RealEstate #housing #oregon

housing-forecastThe year 2016 is expected to usher in the creation of 1.25 million new households, higher rental demand, increased home sales, and a rise in home purchase loan originations even as refinancing volume plummets, CoreLogic’s Chief Economist predicted Monday.
Dr. Frank Nothaft, senior vice president and chief economist at CoreLogic, released his 2016 Outlook for Housing. The signature report offers viewers a few twists, turns and apparent contradictions.
For starters, Nothaft estimates dollar volumes for single-family mortgage originations will plummet 10% despite his prediction of a significant rise in home equity lending and home purchase loan originations.
Still, he says, an uptick in those areas will be offset by a 34 percent decline in refinancing activity as mortgage rates rise, scaring off homeowners who have yet to refinance their existing mortgages.
At the same time, multifamily originations will continue to grow considering rental vacancy rates are now at or near their lowest levels in 20 years, Nothaft noted in his report.
The economist expects demand for apartments and houses to rise significantly in 2016 as younger households take form.
12-7 CoreLogic Graph team thayer eugeneMeanwhile, interest rates will move higher on a gradual basis, causing adjustable-rate mortgage holders to see notable increases in interest rates at a time when the Federal Reserve is expected to raise short-term rates one percentage point between now and the end of 2016, Nothaft says.
As for fixed-rate mortgages, Nothaft estimates a one-half of a percentage point rise between now and the end of 2016, with a forecast of 4.5 percent on the 30-year loan.
As for home sales and home prices, Nothaft expects both economic fundamentals to experience increases next year. He even predicts the CoreLogic Home Price Index will rise 4 to 5 percebt in 2016 as consumers experience the benefits of an improved economy and financial stability.
"As we approach the start of 2016, the consensus view among economists is that economic growth will continue, and the U.S. will enter an eighth consecutive year of expansion in the second half of next year,” Nothaft reported. “Most forecasts place growth at 2 and 3 percent during 2016, creating enough jobs to exert downward pressure on the national unemployment rate.”
Justin Lee Thayer
Justin Lee Thayer 541 543 7287



Location: Eugene, OR 97401, USA

Popular posts from this blog

Grass Seed Video

Read more

How Far Has the Economy Fallen in a Month? Team Thayer #realestate #housing #economic ##market #news #oregon

If the  May  Wall Street Journal  economist survey  is any indication, the economy is a lot worse off than it was as recently as a month ago. In the last three surveys conducted by the  Journal  in which economists are asked when they think the Federal Reserve  will next raise the federal funds target rate, the consensus answer has been June. In April’s survey, three-quarters of economists surveyed said they believe that a rate hike by the Fed will be announced at the next FOMC meeting on June 14 and 15. May’s survey told a different story, however. Less than a third (31 percent) out of the 70 economists surveyed said they believe the rate hike will take place in June; 21 percent said they believe it will take place in July. The same percentage of economists who believe that a June rate hike will take place (31 percent) said they think it will take place in September. What happened to the economy in the last month? A couple of setbacks—first,...
Read more

When Will Bank Foreclosurews ‘Normalize’? Team Thayer #realestate #investor #housing #market #news #oregon

With much of the talk surrounding the housing market centered on “normalization” or returning to its pre-crisis state, one metric which the market is watching is the distressed sales share—the share of REO and short sales that comprise total residential home sales. For February 2016, the distressed sales share declined by 2.9 percentage points over-the-year (and 0.4 percentage points over-the month) down to 11 percent, according to  data released by CoreLogic  on Thursday. At their peak in January 2009, distressed sales accounted for nearly one-third of all residential home sales (32.4 percent) but has been declining steadily since then. By comparison, the pre-crisis share of distressed sales was typically around 2 percent; CoreLogic estimates that if the current rate of year-over-year decline continues, the distressed sales share will reach the “normal” pre-crisis level in slightly more than two years. “Prior to the housing crash, the distressed share of total...
Read more