Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Oregon will lead the west coast's Real Estate recovery this year

Oregon with it's  second-tier cities should lead the west coast recovery this year
Investors, developers and builders are losing some interest in the so-called 24-hour gateway cities -- San Francisco and, Seattle  -- and have developed more interested in cities like, Portland, &  Eugene,  where there are more housing deals to be had.
Example:  2011 only New York City and Washington, D.C. had good prospects for real estate investors and developers, according to the ULI report, but now Austin, Boston, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orange County, Portland, San Francisco, San Jose and Seattle make that list -- and D.C. actually dropped out. Now narrow this field down to the west coast and Oregon appears to lead the way in potential for 2014 housing deals
Real estate recovery stilTl hinges on job growth
The  slow pace of job growth as well as income and wage growth is still holding back the real estate recovery and that's not likely to change quickly.
Only North Dakota and Florida expanded faster in 2013 than Oregon, according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Oregon's job base expanded 2.4 percent, or by about 39,000 new jobs. Florida posted a 2.6 percent job growth rate -- gaining nearly 193,000 new jobs. 
North Dakota, where the oil boom has attracted workers and jobs, saw the biggest expansion in 2013. Its employment base grew 4.0 percent, adding more than 17,000 new jobs. 
Oregon, Florida and North Dakota weren't alone. Hiring picked up in almost every other state in 2013, though by smaller margins. Alaska was the exception. It shed 0.7 percent of its jobs over the past year. 
The "smile investing" philosophy is back
Real estate developers are interested once again in a smile investment philosophy. According to the philosophy, developers and investors start looking at cities in the Northeast and moving south to cities along the Sun Belt -- Florida, Texas, Arizona -- and then coming back up to the Northwest -- Northern California, Oregon and Washington state. So we can expect to see more activity in Northwest.
Multi-family apartment building will wane
With rapidly rising demand for apartments during the recession -- boosted by increased demand from homeowners-turned-renters -- multi-family building surged. But that's likely to quiet down in 2014, as supply and demand have swapped places.
Inventory is coming back
The experts at ULI are predicting that 2014 will be the last year that low inventory will aid property prices. Distressed inventory is drying up and sellers are looking at better profits than they have in years.

Shadow banking is emerging
There's optimism among those surveyed by ULI that lending standards will loosen next year.
To fill the void, a concept called "shadow banking" has started to emerge and may take on a larger role in the lending market next year. Shadow banking is similar to traditional bank lending, but it's done outside banks and can therefore get around bank regulations.
Borrowers going this route will find a private funds, wealthy individuals, family offices. 
By: Justin Thayer
 Licensed Broker in Oregon
Cell: 541-543-7287

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