Home prices are up over 12 percent nationally
from a year ago, and limited supplies of homes for sale continue to push that
number higher. Demand is coming back, home builder sentiment is at a seven-year
high and real estate agents are reporting bidding wars. None of this means
housing is heading back to the bubble, according to economists at CoreLogic.
"The fundamentals are there
right now, and the market is responding," said Mark Fleming, chief
economist at CoreLogic.
Even in the fastest growing markets,
where prices are up around 20 percent from a year ago, Fleming pointed to still
near-record affordability. For housing price affordability to return to the average
level that we saw in the years between 2000 and 2004, he said, either home
prices would have to rise an additional 47 percent or interest rates rise to
6.75 percent. Only Washington, D.C., and Hawaii are "technically
unaffordable," according to CoreLogic.
"Buyers
buy based upon payment, and those payments are still highly affordable relative
to their incomes," he said. "Even with 100 basis point swing, there's
still plenty of room in that affordability index."
The concern, however, has been that as mortgage rates rise, home
prices would necessarily fall, as buyers lose purchasing power. That may not be
the case, according to a new analysis.
"History shows that a rapid rise in
interest rates tends to have little correlation with home prices. Rather,
rising rates are more likely to contribute to a decrease in home purchase
volume and an increase in the market share of adjustable-rate mortgages,"
wrote Mark Palim in a Fannie Mae commentary. Home prices are determined more by income
and employment than anything else. That is why prices cannot continue to rise
at the current rate. Incomes are not keeping pace, and affordability will
therefore suffer.
"If prices were to continue to rise at
12, 15, 20 percent in some markets, then we are talking about a different
scenario," said Fleming. "We have room to grow, but it can't grow
indefinitely."
—By
CNBC's Diana Olick. Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick.