Tuesday, October 1, 2013

 Pending Home Sales, down 1.6% for August but still up 5.8% for the year.


   Mortgage rate national average have dropped the last two weeks with the Fed's announcement it would continue buying mortgage bonds. This will help stabilize the the winter market as the average big tickets will drop due to parents needing to buy the GI Joe with the kung fu grip  as well as feed aunt Margaret with her 12 kids at the holiday celebration! As the worship of the of small ticket retail! climaxes on Jan 01. The final day of returning gifts resulting in an upgrade for ones self at an average of +$10 per item! 

 New Home Sales up 12.6% year-over-year. There will be desperate builders who hold too much inventory during a low season 10/15-01/15 who will dump prices to stay afloat or out of panic! Either way look for great deals on new homes during this time! Remember this simple rule! Buy when the masses are busy with distractions. I even use large news events to gain advantage when buying property holdings! The same rules apply for the seasoned investor & single family home owner alike! It's so easy but if everybody did what I said I would not have been able to be as successful an investor! Nobody would!

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index was up 0.62% in July, its 18th consecutive monthly gain, with all 20 metros ahead. Its 12.39% annual gain was its biggest since early 2006. This upward trend is calculated to last to 2024 barring normal cycles in the market. This means buy! Buy and hold for long term flippers (fix rent & sell) & less risk for short term flippers (fix & sell)

The Dow and the S&P 500 indexes down for the first time in four weeks, although the tech-heavy Nasdaq showed a minuscule gain. The Senate did pass a bill to avoid government shut down  but as of Friday, it still needed House approval. The U.S. will also hit its borrowing limit on October 17 unless the debt ceiling is raised. With all this going on, economic data held little sway. The economy as a whole is just note stable for obvious reasons. We have to weigh risk individually. My ability to accept risk &   mediate my losses will not be healthy for everyone. On the flip side my portfolio is a drop in the bucket to a top hedge fund manager. It's all relevant at the end of the day. Always work with in your personal risk tolerance. I have an excellent track record but manage your risk on your terms! If you need help calculating you net risk factor....call me on my cell @ 541-543-4287 if you have any questions.
Real Estate Scientist Justin  Lee Thayer  :) 


 DateTime (ET)ReleaseForConsensusPriorImpact
M
Sep 30
09:45Chicago PMISep53.753.0HIGH
Tu
Oct 1
10:00ISM IndexSep55.155.7HIGH
W
Oct 2
10:30Crude Inventories9/28NA2.635MModerate
Th
Oct 3
08:30Initial Unemployment Claims9/28315K305KModerate
Th
Oct 3
08:30Continuing Unemployment Claims9/212.825M2.823MModerate
Th
Oct 3
10:00ISM ServicesSep57.458.6Moderate
F
Oct 4
08:30Average WorkweekSep34.534.5HIGH
F
Oct 4
08:30Hourly EarningsSep0.2%0.2%HIGH
F
Oct 4
08:30Nonfarm PayrollsSep183K169KHIGH
F
Oct 4
08:30Unemployment RateSep7.3%7.5%HIGH
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